Toyota’s sales in 2024 may be challenged by China cars, and it is difficult to break the 10 million mark.

In 2023, Toyota’s global sales exceeded 10 million vehicles. However, with the increasing competitiveness of China cars, Japanese cars represented by Toyota, Honda and Nissan will increasingly feel the threat from China cars. Especially Honda, the decline is particularly obvious. From January to November, 2024, Toyota’s cumulative sales showed a negative growth. One of the main reasons was that China, represented by BYD, posed a great challenge to Japanese cars in China. The cumulative sales from January to November decreased by 8.3% compared with the same period of last year, which may lead to Toyota’s annual sales of less than 10 million vehicles. At the same time, in the Southeast Asian market dominated by Thailand and Indonesia, they are also challenged by their own cars from China.

From January to November, 2024, Toyota’s sales in Indonesia decreased by nearly 14% year-on-year. Because the Southeast Asian markets such as Indonesia are relatively small for China, it will not have much impact on Toyota’s total sales in 2024. At present, China’s market share in Indonesia is only 9%, but as long as its market share exceeds or approaches 20%, the nightmare of Japanese cars will begin. This day will come sooner or later, and it’s not just Honda and Nissan that will be hit hard.