With the surge of international air ticket search bookings, how do fares and flight volumes change？

The Beijing News Shell Financial News (Reporter Wang Zhenzhen) On December 27th, the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the Notice on Temporary Measures for People-to-People Exchanges between China and Foreign Countries (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which mentioned a series of policies that are beneficial to cross-border travel, such as canceling the number control measures of international passenger flights such as "five ones", "one country, one policy" and the load factor restriction, increasing the number of flights by stages, and optimizing the route distribution. On the evening of December 26th, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council released the Overall Plan for Implementing Class B and B Management for novel coronavirus Infection.

The impact of the new policy on travel consumption is rapidly emerging. On major travel booking platforms, the number of search bookings for international air tickets has soared. Then, with the implementation of the policy, what changes will happen to the price of international air tickets and the volume of international flights?

Within one hour after the release of the above news, the data of Qunar shows that the number of international air ticket bookings on the platform has increased fivefold, and the departure time is concentrated from mid-January to early February. The popular destinations are Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok and Hong Kong. According to the monitoring data from Fei Changzhun, as of 10: 00 on December 27th, the search volume of international air tickets during the Spring Festival holiday has tripled. On the morning of December 27th, Ctrip data showed that the orders for outbound air tickets in China increased by 254% over the previous day.

Compared with the increase of international air ticket search booking volume, up to now, each platform has different views on the price fluctuation of international air tickets. Fei Changzhun said that the price of international air tickets has not fluctuated significantly for the time being. Since December, the average payment price of outbound air tickets has been 7,600 yuan, and the average payment price of inbound air tickets has been 9,800 yuan.

Ctrip said that on the morning of December 27th, the average price of outbound air tickets from mainland China on the platform dropped by 12.9% month-on-month, showing an overall trend of "volume rising and price falling". Among them, the average price of air tickets for several Asian destinations dropped significantly. Hong Kong, China, Singapore, South Korea and Japan are the top four destinations in terms of air ticket price drop, with the top three air ticket prices dropping by 40%-47%, and Japan’s air ticket prices dropping by 27.6%. Ctrip related sources said that one of the reasons for the drop in ticket prices may be related to the recent increase in short-term outbound capacity of domestic airlines. In addition, the exit ticket prices of long-distance destinations such as Britain, the United States and Australia are relatively firm at present, and generally "decrease less and increase".

From the query of where to travel App, it can be found that the ticket prices of long-distance routes such as Central Europe and China and the United States are still high, mainly due to the lack of flight seats; There are still low-priced tickets for flights to Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and other routes with sufficient seats, but due to the growth of demand, the ticket price will rise in the short term. In the long run, with the gradual normalization of the relationship between supply and demand of inbound and outbound air tickets, the overall price of international air tickets will gradually decrease, and passengers’ willingness to travel will gradually increase.

The relevant person in charge of Qunar said that after the policy adjustment, the demand for main routes is still the strongest. There are many tourists from Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities. The main destinations are Thailand, Japan and other tourist areas with relatively short distance and low air tickets, as well as some routes for visiting relatives.

According to the data obtained by Beijing News Shell Finance reporter from Ctrip, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, China, Japan and Thailand have the highest increase in air ticket orders and become the top five popular destinations after the optimization and adjustment of entry and exit policies. Among them, the growth rate of outbound air ticket orders with Singapore as the destination was the highest, up 6 times from the previous month. In addition, the orders of outbound air tickets for long-distance destinations in Britain, the United States and Australia have also increased, but there is still a certain gap from the increase in Asia.

Will the international flight volume of major airlines increase with the strong demand for routes?

Guo Lechun, vice president of Qunar Big Data Research Institute, said: "The adjustment of entry and exit policies is conducive to promoting the orderly recovery of international flights, but due to the approval of international flight arrangements, the flight supply will not increase significantly. At present, the number of planned flights is only 400, even if all flights are carried out, it will only reach 10% of the same period in 2019. However, we also see that since the release of the’ New Ten Articles’, the number of direct international flights to and from China has continued to increase, and the recovery momentum is gratifying. "

Wang Yi, an international air ticket analyst with Fei Changzhun, also said that there will be no explosive growth in short-term international flights, and the capacity of international routes will be gradually released, which is expected to be greatly improved next summer. According to Fei Changzhun’s data, the number of international air ticket searches on the platform during the May Day holiday in 2023 increased sixfold, and it is expected that May Day will become the first real explosion point of outbound travel.

It is worth noting that the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter learned that the current demand for entry is growing faster than that for exit. According to Ctrip data, on the morning of December 27th, the order of inbound air tickets in China increased by 412% compared with the same period of December 26th, which was 1.6 times that of outbound air tickets. The average price of inbound air tickets increased by 8.6% month-on-month. As a whole, the inbound air tickets are in a state of "rising volume and price".

According to Ctrip data, at present, Australia, Germany, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, China are the top five popular inbound tourist destinations. Among the inbound air tickets, only Thailand and Hong Kong, China have a month-on-month decrease in ticket prices, and the ticket prices of other departure places are rising.

In addition, the relevant person in charge of Qunar pointed out that the consumption habit of "buying hotels and buying air tickets" under the epidemic has also extended from domestic to overseas. As early as mid-December, some tourists hoarded low-cost international hotels in advance, and the departure time was on New Year’s Day. The popular destinations were Thailand, the Philippines and other holiday areas.

At present, visas are a major factor restricting travel. Many passengers’ passports have expired, so it takes some time to apply for visas. According to the Notice, outbound travel of China citizens will be resumed in an orderly manner according to the international epidemic situation and the service guarantee capacity in all aspects, based on the principle of pilot first. At present, Qunar has updated the situation of landing visa countries and regions overnight, providing convenience for tourists to arrange their travel plans.

"The optimization of entry and exit policies has made tourists travel without restrictions, but due to insufficient supply, the ticket price is still at a high level in the short term, and it will take time for the total travel demand to recover. It is expected that after the flight season changes at the end of March next year, the flight volume will obviously recover, and the ticket price will gradually fall back to a reasonable range. With the implementation of policies and the recovery of the airline’s operational capacity, the summer of 2023 may usher in the peak of entry and exit." Guo Lechun said.

Editor Jake

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